It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
